Superforecasting : : the art and Science of Prediction
Book - 2015 Adult Book / Nonfiction / Social Science / General / Tetlock, Philip E, 303.49 Te 1 On Shelf No requests on this item
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Call Number: Adult Book / Nonfiction / Social Science / General / Tetlock, Philip E, 303.49 Te
On Shelf At: Westgate Branch
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Westgate Adult Books 4-week checkout |
Adult Book / Nonfiction / Social Science / General / Tetlock, Philip E | 4-week checkout | On Shelf |
Downtown 2nd Floor 4-week checkout |
303.49 Te | 4-week checkout | Due 05-25-2024 |
Malletts Adult Books 4-week checkout |
Adult Book / Nonfiction / Social Science / General / Tetlock, Philip E | 4-week checkout | Due 05-25-2024 |
Pittsfield Adult Books 4-week checkout |
Adult Book / Nonfiction / Social Science / General / Tetlock, Philip E | 4-week checkout | Due 05-21-2024 |
Includes index.
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"-- Provided by publisher.
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wdf submitted by kscapellie on July 13, 2020, 4:07pm the art and science prediction
PUBLISHED
New York : Crown, [2015]
Year Published: 2015
Description: 340 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm.
Language: English
Format: Book
ISBN/STANDARD NUMBER
9780804136693
0804136696
9780804136716
ADDITIONAL CREDITS
Gardner, Dan, 1968-
SUBJECTS
Economic forecasting.
Forecasting.